A decisive new batch of ballots from Las Vegas’ Clark County has prompted the Associated Press and many other outlets to declare that Nevada incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto has defeated Adam Laxalt, assuring another two years of Democratic control of the U.S. Senate.
With the win, Democrats will have at least 50 seats plus the vice presidential tiebreaker vote — just as they do today — with an opportunity to secure another seat in the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff pitting Republican Herschel Walker against incumbent Raphael Warnock. With Senate control no longer at stake, it seems likely that already-dull Republican enthusiasm for Trump-backed Walker will sag even more.
The Arizona governor’s race remains tight, however. Unlike Friday night’s update — Saturday’s new tally brought some good news for the GOP, as Kari Lake trimmed Democrat Katie Hobbs’ lead to 34,129 votes. Hobbs is up 50.7% to 49.3%.
There are still about 300,000 votes yet to be counted in Arizona, with the great majority coming from two counties: Maricopa, which is home to Phoenix, and Pima County, where Tucson is found.
Appearing on CNN Saturday evening, Arizona Assistant Secretary of State Allie Bones said rural counties are largely done, and that Maricopa County will give more tallies on both Sunday and Monday. She said it was unclear if Pima will release any more results until Monday.
Maricopa figures especially heavy. So far, Hobbs is leading Maricopa 52.1% to 47.9%. However, the Saturday batch favored Lake 51.8% to 48.2%, and her campaign hopes the next batches lean harder in her direction to push her to a dramatic 11th-hour victory.
That may very much be the case. According to Arizona pollster and data analyst Landon Wall, the sequence by which Maricopa has been counting ballots means that tallies are increasingly coming from more Republican-friendly Phoenix suburbs and exurbs.
According to Bones, of the outstanding Arizona votes, the vast majority are so-called “late earlies” — early-voting ballots that voters completed but then brought to a polling station on Election Day rather than mailing them in. Trump wonthat particular flavor of Maricopa votes in 2020.
“It’s not a question that [Republicans] will win the next batches. Only a question of how much,” tweeted ABC15 political analyst Garrett Archer, a former elections analyst for the Arizona secretary of state.
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